Blind Over Bakersfield: Forecast IMC and a Party to Get To

Some accidents come down to one bad moment. This one is a chain of decisions, each one made to save the one before it. The pilot had the forecast. He had his family aboard and a surprise party that night. Every time the weather closed a door, he found another one.

The AOPA Air Safety Institute (ASI) re-creates the flight in its video "Accident Case Study: Blind Over Bakersfield," which you can watch below. The summary that follows is ours and is based on the NTSB final report (WPR16FA041), which also gives the official probable cause. Watch the full case study for ASI's own analysis.

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The flight, in short

On December 19, 2015, a 42-year-old private pilot with about 270 hours and no instrument rating departed Reid-Hillview Airport in San Jose, California (RHV) in a Piper PA-32RT-300T Turbo Lance II, bound for Henderson Executive Airport near Las Vegas (HND). His wife and their three children were aboard. They were going on vacation and were due at a surprise party that night.

He had downloaded official weather briefings to his tablet the night before and again that morning. According to the NTSB, the forecast was not suitable for VFR: a series of storms crossing the route, with IMC, high cloud tops, and the potential for icing and mountain obscuration.

Shortly after takeoff the flight met the forecast weather. The pilot deviated again and again to stay out of the clouds, and controllers kept reporting bands of precipitation and the potential for airframe icing ahead. The tops kept rising, and he kept climbing to stay above them, until he was near the airplane's 20,000-foot ceiling and close to Class A airspace. The airplane had supplemental oxygen for three people. There were five aboard.

When the airplane began to descend and likely entered the clouds, a controller offered an IFR clearance, and the pilot accepted. Shortly after, likely while he was setting up the avionics, the flightpath became erratic. He made two mayday calls. The airplane broke up in flight near Bakersfield, and all five people aboard were killed. Because of the deviations, the flight was only about halfway to Henderson, with about 30 minutes left before sunset.

The NTSB determined the probable cause to be: “The noninstrument-rated pilot's decision to conduct and continue the flight despite forecast and en route instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), which were not conducive to safe operation under visual flight rules. Also causal to the accident was the pilot's decision to accept an instrument flight rules clearance and fly into IMC during cruise flight, which led to his spatial disorientation and a resultant loss of control and an in-flight breakup. Contributing to the accident was the pilot's self-induced pressure to arrive at the destination for a party that night.”

The chain, one link at a time

• Departing: the forecast already ruled out VFR. The trip was planned around the party, not around the weather.
• Deviating: each turn around a cloud cost time and fuel and pushed the arrival closer to sunset.
• Climbing on top: every thousand feet bought a few more minutes, while the tops kept rising and the oxygen ran short for the family.
• Accepting the clearance: it sounded like help, but it put a noninstrument-rated pilot in the clouds, hand-flying and heads-down on avionics.

The NTSB noted that, without an instrument rating or enough oxygen for his family, the pilot may have been reluctant to declare an emergency and climb into Class A airspace, which likely would have put him above the clouds. He accepted an IFR clearance at a lower altitude instead. That's the hidden cost of a chain like this: by the end, every option left has a downside, so it's easy to pick none of them.

Break the chain early

• Decide on the ground. If the forecast doesn't support VFR, the trip doesn't start VFR, party or not.
• Set a turnaround trigger before you go, like “if I have to climb above X to stay clear, I turn back,” and keep it.
• Count deviations as risk. Each one is the weather telling you something.
• Declare an emergency early. ATC can help most when they know what you need.