Fair Weather Flier: When the Briefer Says VFR Is Not Recommended

Most VFR-into-IMC accidents don't start with a pilot ignoring the weather. They start with a pilot who checked it, heard the warnings, and found a reason the warnings didn't quite apply to this flight. This one is a clear example, because the whole weather briefing is on tape.

The AOPA Air Safety Institute (ASI) re-creates the flight in its video "Accident Case Study: Fair Weather Flier," which you can watch below. The summary that follows is ours and is based on the NTSB final report (ERA20LA262), which also gives the official probable cause. Watch the full case study for ASI's own analysis.

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The flight, in short

On July 28, 2020, a 64-year-old private pilot with about 946 hours and no instrument rating planned to fly his Beech F33A Bonanza home from Gulf Shores, Alabama (JKA) to Muscle Shoals (MSL), about 267 NM. His wife was aboard. Family members told the NTSB the original plan was to fly home on July 29 or 30, depending on weather. He had a business meeting on July 29.

At 4:15 that afternoon he called flight service. The briefer told him the next day didn't look good: thunderstorms, rain showers, low ceilings and reduced visibility, and VFR flight not recommended. For that afternoon the news wasn't much better. Thunderstorms and rain showers were already in the area, a convective SIGMET was in effect, weather was building along and on both sides of the route, and the briefer again said VFR flight was not recommended.

The pilot said he'd probably go that afternoon, because tomorrow would be worse, and that his own look at the weather showed “everything is VFR as we speak.” The briefer agreed the surface reports were VFR but said cloud layers were “getting pretty close” and that rain showers could drop parts of the route to instrument conditions. The briefer then offered a recent observation from Mobile, about 25 miles west of the route: 1.5 miles in heavy rain and mist. The pilot said he could avoid the precipitation unless he hit a solid line of storms.

He departed VFR with flight following. About 15 minutes after takeoff, as the rain showers increased, the Bonanza made a decreasing radius 360° turn. Over the next two minutes the track became erratic, the altitude dropped from 5,000 feet to about 1,275 feet, and the groundspeed swung between 150 and 34 knots. The airplane struck trees and hit a field near Malbis, Alabama. Both people aboard were killed. An airport 18 miles away was reporting a 1,200-foot overcast and half a mile in heavy rain at the time.

The NTSB determined the probable cause to be: “The noninstrument-rated pilot’s decision to depart in deteriorating weather conditions, which led to restricted visibility and the pilot’s loss of airplane control due to spatial disorientation. Contributing to the pilot’s poor decision-making was self-induced pressure.”

What self-induced pressure sounds like

Nobody told this pilot he had to go. The pressure came from his own plan: a meeting the next day and a forecast that would only get worse. Listen to how it shows up in the briefing.

• “Tomorrow is worse, so today is the day.” A worse forecast tomorrow doesn't make today good. It can mean neither day works.
• “Everything is VFR as we speak.” Surface observations describe right now at the airport. The flight happens later, between airports.
• “I can avoid the precipitation unless it's a solid line.” That plan depends on seeing the weather, in the weather.
• “I haven't heard anything to tell me that.” He had. Twice, the briefer said VFR flight was not recommended.

The airplane had a glass panel with synthetic vision. It didn't help. Equipment can't stand in for an instrument rating once the visibility goes.

Decide before the pressure shows up

• Write your VFR limits down at home, and treat “VFR not recommended” from a briefer as a reason to stop and rethink, not a reason to argue.
• Plan the trip with a spare day built in. If the only way home is today, the meeting is making the call.
• Name the pressure out loud. A meeting, a forecast that's getting worse, or a passenger who wants to get home all count as external pressure.
• If you do go, decide ahead of time what makes you turn around, and make it something you can see before you're in it.