High Aspirations: A Heavy Airplane on a Hot Day

Heat, altitude, weight and wind each take a bite out of takeoff performance. One at a time they're manageable. All four at once can leave an airplane that lifts off and then barely climbs at all.

The AOPA Air Safety Institute (ASI) re-creates this flight in its video "Accident Case Study: High Aspirations," which you can watch below. The summary that follows is ours and is based on the NTSB final report (WPR20LA238), which also gives the official probable cause. Watch the full case study for ASI's own analysis.

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The flight, in short

On July 25, 2020, a 43-year-old instrument-rated private pilot with about 108 hours, 5 of them in make and model, loaded five passengers into a Piper PA-32R-300 Lance at South Valley Regional Airport (U42) in West Jordan, Utah. He had filed IFR for Page, Arizona. The tanks were filled. His wife said he had computed weight and balance, knew about the high temperature and altitude, and assured her “it's all good.” The NTSB calculated the takeoff weight at about 3,531 pounds against a 3,600 pound maximum.

It was 32°C, and the density altitude was above 7,200 feet. The windsock showed wind from the north as the airplane took off on runway 16, a tailwind the NTSB estimated at 7 to 10 knots. The airplane lifted off about 3,700 feet down the 5,862 foot runway. It then made a series of shallow climbs and descents and never got more than about 120 feet above the ground. The NTSB said the airplane should have been able to climb about 500 feet per minute.

About 1 minute 15 seconds after takeoff, a security camera caught the airplane descending steeply into a neighborhood about 1.5 miles southeast of the airport. It struck a tree and three structures, and a fire followed. The pilot, two passengers and one person on the ground were killed, and three passengers were injured. Engine data showed the engine running normally until the last seconds, when the pilot appeared to be adjusting the mixture.

The NTSB determined the probable cause to be: “The pilot's failure to maintain the airplane’s speed during takeoff near the airplane’s maximum gross weight in high-density altitude conditions, which resulted in the exceedance of the airplane's critical angle of attack and led to an aerodynamic stall, loss of control, and subsequent impact with structures and terrain.”

Why the numbers matter

The NTSB said the pilot likely responded to the poor climb by pitching down for airspeed and then back up to climb, until the wing exceeded its critical angle of attack. When an airplane won't climb, pulling harder only makes it slower.

• Run takeoff and climb numbers from the performance charts for the actual temperature, elevation and weight.
• Check the wind before you pick a runway. A tailwind on a hot day eats runway you may not have.
• Set an abort point. If you aren't flying by a certain spot on the runway, stop.
• If the climb is anemic after liftoff, hold the best climb speed and fly the airplane. Don't trade airspeed for altitude near the ground.