Weather Products

TAF vs MOS, LAMP and NBM

TAFs are the official NWS terminal forecast. This article compares them with MOS, LAMP and NBM guidance, and explains why many small airports never get a forecaster-written TAF.

What a TAF is and what it covers

A Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) is the official NWS terminal forecast for an airport. Weather Forecast Office (WFO) forecasters prepare and monitor TAFs using professional judgment in AvnFPS. An NDFD formatter may build a first-guess TAF that forecasters should edit.

For a group-by-group decode of a TAF, see What Is a TAF? How to Read a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast.

Coverage is the area within 5 statute miles of the center of the runway complex. Vicinity (VC) means 5 to 10 SM. Elements include surface wind, visibility, weather, obstructions to vision, clouds or vertical visibility, non-convective low-level wind shear, and significant changes.

The valid period is ordinarily 24 hours. FAA-specified international airports get 30-hour TAFs. TAFs are scheduled four times daily, every six hours, with amendments as needed. FAA Core 30 airports get scheduled amendments every 3 hours. TEMPO groups do not exceed 4 hours. PROB groups are 6 hours or less. Formats include TAC and IWXXM.

According to the Aviation Weather Center, TAFs are issued for nearly 700 U.S. airports, typically 20 to 40 minutes before the valid time. The airport network changes over time through NWS service change notices.

MOS, LAMP and NBM: guidance, not the official TAF

MOS, LAMP and NBM are forecast guidance that forecasters use as input. The TAF remains the official NWS terminal forecast. PlaneWX complements FAA and Flight Service weather products. PlaneWX is decision support. It is not a substitute for your full preflight briefing (for example a standard briefing through Flight Service or your EFB).

MOS (Model Output Statistics)

MOS is made by NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). It is statistical post-processing that uses multiple linear regression. Predictors are numerical model output, prior observations and geoclimatic data. It runs on the GFS and the NAM.

GFS MOS coverage includes CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and some Pacific islands.

  • MAV (short-range GFS MOS): runs 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, 6 to 72 hours, over 1500 stations. Includes ceiling (CIG), visibility (VIS) and obstruction to vision (OBV).
  • MEX (extended-range GFS MOS): runs 00 and 12 UTC, 24 to 192 hours, over 1600 stations. The MEX card shows no ceiling or visibility elements.
  • MET (NAM MOS): runs 00 and 12 UTC, 6 to 72 hours, same element set as MAV including CIG, VIS and OBV. NAM MOS is scheduled to end along with the NAM on October 14, 2026 at 1200 UTC (NWS SCN 26-47).

LAMP (Localized Aviation MOS Program)

LAMP is made by MDL. It is a statistical system that updates MOS every hour, with ceiling and visibility every 15 minutes, using recent observations, analyses, simple models, and MOS from models such as GFS and HRRR. It covers over 2000 stations.

The standard range is 1 to 25 hours. It extends to 38 hours for key elements including temperature, dewpoint, wind, gusts, ceiling, visibility and obstruction to vision. Elements include ceiling, conditional ceiling, visibility, conditional visibility, obstruction to vision, lightning and convection.

LAMP v2.7, implemented September 16, 2025 (NWS SCN 25-62), added flight-category bulletins for 1,818 CONUS stations: 15-minute periods out to 6 hours, and hourly out to 38 hours. Gridded LAMP (GLMP) is hourly, with ceiling and visibility every 15 minutes, on a 2.5 km grid. The LAMP FAQ defines VLIFR, LIFR, IFR, MVFR and VFR thresholds.

NBM (National Blend of Models)

NBM is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance that blends NWS and non-NWS model data and post-processed guidance. It serves as a starting point for the NDFD grids forecasters edit.

NBM v5.0 became operational April 30, 2026 (NWS SCN 26-24). It runs every hour, with output out to 264 hours. Text bulletins cover over 9,000 land and marine stations: NBH hourly 1 to 25 hours, NBS 3-hourly 6 to 72 hours, NBE 12-hourly 24 to 192 hours, NBX 12-hourly 204 to 264 hours.

NBH includes ceiling, visibility, lowest cloud base, and MVFR, IFR and LIFR ceiling and visibility probabilities. NBS includes ceiling, visibility and lowest cloud base. NBE has no ceiling or visibility.

How they compare

TAFs cover about 700 airports. MOS covers about 2,000 stations. LAMP covers over 2,000. NBM covers over 9,000. At many small airports, pilots see only automated guidance, never a forecaster-written TAF.

  • TAF: Who makes it: NWS WFO forecasters (AvnFPS, professional judgment). How: official terminal forecast. Run times: scheduled 4x daily (every 6 hours), amendments as needed; Core 30 get scheduled amendments every 3 hours. Range: ordinarily 24 hr (30 hr at FAA-specified international airports). Ceiling and visibility: included. Stations: nearly 700 U.S. airports. Official or guidance: official.
  • MOS: Who makes it: MDL. How: statistical post-processing (multiple linear regression) on GFS and NAM. Run times: MAV 00/06/12/18 UTC; MEX and MET 00/12 UTC. Range: MAV 6 to 72 hr; MEX 24 to 192 hr; MET 6 to 72 hr (NAM MOS scheduled to end Oct 14, 2026 at 1200 UTC). Ceiling and visibility: MAV and MET include CIG, VIS, OBV; MEX card shows no ceiling or visibility. Stations: MAV over 1500; MEX over 1600. Official or guidance: guidance.
  • LAMP: Who makes it: MDL. How: statistical system that updates MOS every hour (ceiling and visibility every 15 minutes). Run times: hourly updates. Range: 1 to 25 hr standard; extends to 38 hr for key elements. Ceiling and visibility: yes (plus conditional ceiling/visibility, obstruction, lightning, convection). Stations: over 2000. Official or guidance: guidance.
  • NBM: Who makes it: MDL. How: nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance; starting point for NDFD grids. Run times: every hour. Range: out to 264 hr (NBH 1 to 25 hr; NBS 6 to 72 hr; NBE 24 to 192 hr; NBX 204 to 264 hr). Ceiling and visibility: NBH and NBS yes; NBE no. Stations: over 9,000 land and marine. Official or guidance: guidance.

Putting it into practice

Why it matters

Without a dispatcher, you have to know whether you are reading an official forecaster TAF or automated guidance. That matters most at airports with no TAF, where MOS, LAMP or NBM may be what you have. Knowing which product you are looking at keeps the go/⁠no‑go call grounded in what the product actually is.

Decision loop

  1. 1Weather Briefing
  2. 2FRAT
  3. 3GO / NO-GO
  4. 4Self Debrief

Mentor is an optional layer on any step, not a fifth stage.

Tool or habit

PlaneWX Weather Briefing and WX Score weigh forecast conditions against your own personal minimums. PlaneWX never recommends go or no-go. You make the GO / NO‑GO call.

Sources

PlaneWX complements FAA and Flight Service weather products. PlaneWX is decision support. It is not a substitute for your full preflight briefing (for example a standard briefing through Flight Service or your EFB).

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