Time Lapse: Datalink Radar Is a Picture of the Past
An instrument-rated Cherokee Six pilot used in-cockpit NEXRAD to pick his way around Texas thunderstorms at night. The airplane flew into severe weather and broke up near Bryan. Based on the AOPA Air Safety Institute case study and the NTSB final report, a look at what datalink weather can and can't tell you.
Datalink radar in the cockpit is one of the best things to happen to general aviation weather. It is also always a little out of date, and a storm moving fast enough can close a gap that still looks open on the screen.
The AOPA Air Safety Institute (ASI) re-creates this flight in its video "Accident Case Study: Time Lapse," which you can watch below. The summary that follows is ours and is based on the NTSB final report (CEN12FA108), which also gives the official probable cause. Watch the full case study for ASI's own analysis.
The flight, in short
On December 19, 2011, a 33-year-old instrument-rated private pilot with about 392 hours was flying a Piper PA-32-260 Cherokee Six with four passengers from Hampton, Georgia to Waco, Texas on an IFR flight plan. After a fuel stop in Jackson, Mississippi, the flight left about 5:50 PM. His GPS unit had a current NEXRAD weather subscription.
Level at 8,000 feet, he told Houston approach he'd been “looking at my nexrad” and asked about a 250 heading. The controller said that heading would put him in moderate to heavy precipitation. Over the next 20 minutes or so the pilot and the controller talked through the weather: the airplane skirting light to moderate precipitation, a heavy to extreme cell about 8 miles ahead and to his right, and the pilot maneuvering to find a “hole” to go through.
At 9:42 PM the controller said the airplane had just made a left 360 and was headed right into heavy weather, and suggested a turn to 220. The pilot answered, “We're in some bad weather here. I'm going to try to get out of it.” That was his last transmission. Radar showed a descending turn and lost the airplane two minutes later at 6,800 feet. The left wing had failed in positive overload, and all five people aboard were killed.
The NTSB determined the probable cause to be: “The pilot’s inadvertent encounter with severe weather, which resulted in the airplane’s left wing failing in positive overload. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s reliance on outdated weather information that he received on his in-cockpit Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD).”
Why the age of the picture matters
The GPS unit's manual said NEXRAD data was for “long-range planning purposes only” and not to “penetrate hazardous weather,” because it “is not real-time.” After this accident, in June 2012, the NTSB issued a safety alert warning that the age shown on a cockpit NEXRAD display can be misleading, and that the actual radar data can be as much as 20 minutes older than the display suggests. Around fast-moving, fast-building storms, that difference matters.
- Use datalink radar to stay well clear of weather, not to thread a path between cells.
- Assume the picture is older than the age on the screen says.
- Treat a controller's live radar call as fresher than your own display, and take the turn they suggest.
- Brief convective weather on the ground and plan wide deviations or a stop before you're in it.
Putting it into practice
Why it matters
The best time to avoid a line of storms is before you take off, with the whole picture in front of you and no clock running. PlaneWX never recommends GO or NO‑GO. The pilot makes the call.
Decision loop
- 1Weather Briefing
- 2FRAT
- 3GO / NO-GO
- 4Self Debrief
Mentor is an optional layer on any step, not a fifth stage.
Tool or habit
Brief every flight in PlaneWX and look closely when a Convective Watch shows up along your route. Set a storm avoidance personal minimum and let the WX Score check it. Use the FRAT, which opens 4 hours before departure, to be honest about night, a long day and the pressure to get home. You record your own GO / NO‑GO decision.
Sources
- AOPA ASIAOPA Air Safety Institute: Accident Case Study: Time Lapse (video)
- NTSBNTSB Aviation Investigation Final Report CEN12FA108 (N3590T)
- NTSBNTSB Safety Alert SA-017: In-Cockpit NEXRAD Mosaic Imagery
PlaneWX complements FAA and Flight Service weather products. PlaneWX is decision support. It is not a substitute for your full preflight briefing (for example a standard briefing through Flight Service or your EFB).